It is important to remember that awards can be about narratives. Obviously in order to win an award in the NFL you have to perform. That goes without saying. But you also have to perform in a way that feels a bit theatrical and cinematic. Awards are voted on by people, human beings with emotions and feelings. Defying the odds or stifling the noise is a powerful thing and difficult for people to shake when casting a ballot.
Consider the league’s MVP award last season.
quarterback Lamar Jackson took it home, his second career MVP, but the numbers from his season are certainly debatable with other quarterbacks (given that the MVP award is mostly a quarterback one) around the league.
The following argument has been used a lot since Jackson won it so it’s being repurposed for this example. This discussion is not about Dak Prescott, but we are using him to prove the point. These are just numbers and statistics. They cannot hurt you.
Again the point here is to illustrate that narrative matters and to be clear it should. Coming up big when you need to is an important qualifier that cannot be measured statistically which is why we charge the aforementioned human beings (not the mascot from Community by the way) to do it. Prescott may have a statistical argument against Jackson, but the former had a down game when the Cowboys lost to the
on Christmas Eve. Meanwhile the latter was magnificent as Baltimore destroyed the
on Christmas night. From that moment on things would basically be on cruise control if Jackson could hold on and not veer off course, which he successfully did.
Now that we have agreed (hopefully!) that awards can involve a thread of narrative, we can segue into the topic at hand. One NFL analyst believes that Mike McCarthy is a ‘longshot’ to win Coach of the Year.
McCarthy has indeed overseen three straight 12-win campaigns, something that all of his predecessors throughout The Drought™️ were unable to do. This is objectively impressive, but as we often say around here, more than one thing can be true. Given the lofty expectations included in the blurb above he has fallen short of the ultimate goal. Simply put, McCarthy was brought in to break the ceiling of the Divisional Round and has failed.
It is important to distinguish that awards like MVP and COTY are voted on at the conclusion of the regular season so any would-be narrative associated with the Cowboys hypothetically reaching the NFC Championship Game or even the Super Bowl would not carry any water with the voters.
But if McCarthy managed to navigate the season with similar levels of success after an offseason that the entire football cognoscenti deemed to be an at-best questionable one, that would be rather impressive. Perhaps it would even garner some votes for COTY.
Truth be told the league’s COTY can sometimes turn into a Rookie of the Year Award for head coaches which is why people thought DeMeco Ryans or Shane Steichen were going to take it home last year (Dan Campbell was another top candidate). Ultimately Kevin Stefanski won it in a bit of an upset which suggests that veterans (so to speak) can indeed win it, but again consider that narrative was even a part of that. Stefanski helped guide the Browns to the playoffs through an incredible amount of circumstances related to injury.
In a literal sense, McCarthy is an incredible longshot. He is +5000 to win COTY, just about near the bottom of the list according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Ultimately it’s hard to buy in on this idea given that the potential for disaster for the season still exists for the Cowboys, but if you are looking for longshot things which was the purpose here, then it definitely fits the bill. Only one team has won more regular season games over the last three years (I know, I know, regular season) than Mike McCarthy’s Cowboys and that is Andy Reid’s
Will enough happen to create the proper narrative? Only time will tell.
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