(To get in on future mailbags, follow me on X @NateAtkins_, where I put out the call; or email longer questions to natkins@indystar.com.)
If you don’t see your question answered here, tune into our midweek “Cover 2” podcast, where we’ll answer some leftover questions each week.
Question: “If Jonathan Taylor is going to miss time, is Trey Sermon getting most of the workload or RB by committee/feed the hot hand?” — @FredLovesBall via X
Answer: Right now, the Colts only have two other running backs on the active roster, and that’s Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson. They have Evan Hull and now Trent Pennix on the practice squad, and if Taylor misses Sunday with an ankle sprain, I expect they’ll elevate another one.
Colts news:Undrafted Colts RB Trent Pennix, a converted tight end, plays for brother he never met
Through four games, the Colts have only dialed up nine rushing plays for backs other than Taylor, and they’ve all gone to Sermon. That tracks with how things have looked since training camp began, with Sermon in the clear No. 2 rusher and pass protector role and Goodson backing him up as more of a receiving back. That skill set mattered more with Gardner Minshew than it does with Richardson, though, with the emphasis shifting to pass protection.
The last time the Colts had to play without Taylor or Zack Moss, they formed a committee with Sermon and Goodson against the Steelers. Sermon saw 17 carries for 88 yards and Goodson 11 carries for 69 yards.
I could see a percentage split like that again, though the only way they combine for that many carries is if Indianapolis is comfortably leading.
Plenty of this will come down to whether Richardson plays, too, as Sunday’s win showcased how dramatically different the matchups are when a mobile quarterback is freezing the defensive end with the effect of a free blocker versus when that end can play head-up on the tight end with Joe Flacco in the shotgun formation.
Add in Sermon’s skills as a pass protector and more targets in the offense now with Josh Downs back, and I would expect a pass-oriented approach with Flacco in the hopes that Sermon and Goodson can make up volume by salting the game away than having to engineer the offense.
If Richardson plays, given the soreness he’s dealing with, the bulk of the run game should fall on the backs, but the threat of his legs could open up things in order to gain more first downs through them.
Question: “Why have we struggled down in Jacksonville year after year? Is it the humidity?” — @The_Mango_Peach via X
Question: “How will we stop the Jags from looking like a playoff team every time we go to Jacksonville?” — @BradyCopel67184 via X
Answer: It is crazy to think it’s been a full decade since the Colts last won in Jacksonville. 2014 was the year I graduated college and started in this field. It was also the year the Colts last reached the AFC Championship Game.
And unlike the opener streak, this one hasn’t really been close for a while: The past three meetings have been decided by a combined score of 93-31. And it never seems to matter how the Jaguars are playing coming into the game, as evidenced by the 2021 meeting, when they beat a 9-7 Colts squad while sitting at 2-14 with an interim coach; or the 2020 meeting, when the Jaguars beat the Colts in Week 1 and proceeded to lose the next 15 games.
For the Colts offense, I think the passing games have really doomed them here in recent years.
The 2021 meltdown followed the meltdown of Carson Wentz, who just handed the ball to the Jaguars twice with no teammates in the vicinity. The 2022 game featured Matt Ryan trying to throw to a receiving corps that started Dezmon Patmon, Michael Strachan and Parris Campbell, resulting in a shutout. And last season featured one of Gardner Minshew’s first unravelings, right during a stretch when he was forcing the ball and not playing within himself.
The Jaguars have sold out to stop Jonathan Taylor in these games recently, which has at least limited his explosive gains and overall volume. That’s combined with the Colts chasing points to put the pressure on Indianapolis’ passing game, and that quarterback carousel and ongoing search for wide receiver depth has hit rock bottom here.
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